{"id":4811,"date":"2020-11-06T14:16:54","date_gmt":"2020-11-06T07:16:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/?p=4811"},"modified":"2021-12-10T20:28:18","modified_gmt":"2021-12-10T13:28:18","slug":"mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_83 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\"><p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">N\u1ed9i dung b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft<\/p>\n<\/div><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/#Gioi_thieu\" >Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/#Su_khan_hiem_va_hang_ton_kho\" >S\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/#Stock-to-Flow_va_gia_tri\" >Stock-to-Flow v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/#Du_lieu\" >D\u1eef li\u1ec7u<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/#Mo_hinh\" >M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/#Luat_Quyen_luc_va_Fractal\" >Lu\u1eadt Quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 Fractal<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin\/#Ket_luan\" >K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Gioi_thieu\"><\/span>Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Satoshi Nakamoto \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n s\u00e1ch tr\u1eafng v\u1ec1 <a href=\"https:\/\/fiahub.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">bitcoin <\/a>v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 31 th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2008, t\u1ea1o ra kh\u1ed1i bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2009 v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh m\u00e3 bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 8 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2009. Ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bitcoin (BTC) tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 70 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la ng\u00e0y nay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 khan hi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean m\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y. N\u00f3 khan hi\u1ebfm nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1c, v\u00e0ng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eedi qua internet, radio, v\u1ec7 tinh, v.v.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;H\u00e3y t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i kim lo\u1ea1i khan hi\u1ebfm nh\u01b0 v\u00e0ng nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t nh\u01b0: m\u00e0u x\u00e1m bu\u1ed3n t\u1ebb, kh\u00f4ng d\u1eabn \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1ed1t, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh [..], kh\u00f4ng h\u1eefu \u00edch cho b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c trang tr\u00ed n\u00e0o. .. v\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, ph\u00e9p m\u00e0u: <strong>c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua k\u00eanh li\u00ean l\u1ea1c<\/strong> &#8220;- Nakamoto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Nh\u01b0ng bao nhi\u00eau? Trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y, t\u00f4i s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng theo d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Su_khan_hiem_va_hang_ton_kho\"><\/span>S\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e1c t\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec3n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a khan hi\u1ebfm l\u00e0 &#8220;t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5 t\u00ecm ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ee9 g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3&#8221; v\u00e0 &#8220;thi\u1ebfu th\u1ee9 g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3&#8221;.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nick Szabo c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a h\u1eefu \u00edch h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm: &#8216;s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c&#8217;.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;\u0110\u1ed3 c\u1ed5, th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec3m g\u00ec chung? Ch\u00fang \u0111\u1eaft ti\u1ec1n, do nguy\u00ean gi\u00e1 ho\u1eb7c t\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf n\u00e0y. [..] C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n chi ph\u00ed kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean m\u00e1y t\u00ednh. N\u1ebfu nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1eafc ph\u1ee5c, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bit gold. &#8221; &#8211; Szabo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3 s\u01b0u t\u1eadp c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c do s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1eebng mang l\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n m\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 b\u00ean th\u1ee9 ba \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady n\u00e0o. [..] [nh\u01b0ng] b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thanh to\u00e1n tr\u1ef1c tuy\u1ebfn b\u1eb1ng kim lo\u1ea1i. Do \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t giao th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c bit t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o tr\u1ef1c tuy\u1ebfn d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c b\u00ean th\u1ee9 ba \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, chuy\u1ec3n giao v\u00e0 th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch an to\u00e0n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tin c\u1eady t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. Bit gold. &#8221; &#8211; Szabo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, b\u1edfi v\u00ec n\u00f3 t\u1ed1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o n\u00ean. S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t bitcoin kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u1ecb l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n fiat v\u00e0 c\u00e1c altcoin kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 proof-of-work (PoW), c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 b\u0103m th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf ng\u01b0\u1eddi, c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n cung, v.v.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Saifedean Ammous n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho (SF). \u00d4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/fiahub.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">bitcoin <\/a>kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed3ng, k\u1ebdm, niken, \u0111\u1ed3ng thau, v\u00ec ch\u00fang c\u00f3 SF cao.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u00e0o [..] s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3, khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 g\u00e2y t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng, vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 khi\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef l\u00ean 3% thay v\u00ec 1,5%. &#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Ch\u00ednh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 cung c\u1ea5p v\u00e0ng lu\u00f4n \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p n\u00e0y l\u00e0 l\u00fd do c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n khi\u1ebfn n\u00f3 duy tr\u00ec vai tr\u00f2 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong su\u1ed1t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef tr\u00ean d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y cao c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng l\u00e0m cho v\u00e0ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u00f3 cung co gi\u00e3n theo gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;C\u00e1c kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a Bitcoin trong n\u0103m 2017 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 25 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2017. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng, nh\u01b0ng v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng n\u0103m 2022, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu tr\u00ean d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y c\u1ee7a <a href=\"https:\/\/fiahub.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bitcoin<\/a> d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua v\u00e0ng &#8220;- Ammous<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00ec v\u1eady, s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eb1ng SF.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SF = c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \/ d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef l\u00e0 k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c kho l\u01b0u tr\u1eef ho\u1eb7c kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3. D\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. Thay v\u00ec SF, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta c\u0169ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng cung (d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y \/ l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng). L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng SF = 1 \/ t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng cung.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>H\u00e3y xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u1ed1 SF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/2NINLp65wICqWW_IlhnjXZhYQiBQrv2dmNRFp0SadL-nv-_3gtTUbtauM45QqBNbbtZnClnNTEN61Ms-_x9tJBPaM6Sb_517YNwlTXbei1LtKzgIX4kk7E__JMEAVGDWM4zpfs4Z\" alt=\"M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Bitcoin\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00e0ng c\u00f3 SF 62 cao nh\u1ea5t, ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t 62 n\u0103m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n nay. B\u1ea1c \u0111\u1ee9ng th\u1ee9 hai v\u1edbi SF 22. SF cao n\u00e0y l\u00e0m cho ch\u00fang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Paladi, b\u1ea1ch kim v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 SF h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng cao h\u01a1n 1. Ngu\u1ed3n cung hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eb1ng ho\u1eb7c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, khi\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng. H\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u00f3 SF cao h\u01a1n, b\u1edfi v\u00ec ngay sau khi ai \u0111\u00f3 t\u00edch tr\u1eef ch\u00fang, gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m. R\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1i b\u1eaby n\u00e0y.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef l\u00e0 17,5 tri\u1ec7u coin v\u00e0 cung \u1ee9ng 0,7 tri\u1ec7u\/n\u0103m = SF 25. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y x\u1ebfp bitcoin v\u00e0o danh m\u1ee5c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin theo gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 70 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ngu\u1ed3n cung bitcoin l\u00e0 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh. Bitcoin m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra trong m\u1ed7i kh\u1ed1i m\u1edbi. C\u00e1c kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o sau m\u1ed7i 10 ph\u00fat, khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi khai th\u00e1c t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y h\u00e0m b\u0103m th\u1ecfa m\u00e3n PoW c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft cho m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7. Giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong m\u1ed7i kh\u1ed1i, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 coinbase, ch\u1ee9a ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u1ed1i cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi khai th\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y kh\u1ed1i. Ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u1ed1i bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n ph\u00ed m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 cho c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch trong kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c coin m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra (\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p). Tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1ee9c 50 bitcoin v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda sau m\u1ed7i 210.000 kh\u1ed1i (kho\u1ea3ng 4 n\u0103m). \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao &#8216;gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda&#8217; r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ec1n <a href=\"https:\/\/fiahub.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">bitcoin <\/a>v\u00e0 SF. Gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda c\u0169ng khi\u1ebfn t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ngu\u1ed3n cung (trong ng\u1eef c\u1ea3nh bitcoin th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 &#8216;l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7&#8217;) b\u1ecb t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng su\u00f4n s\u1ebb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/J9nNJR5BL1DvZtipjvfSs5x-s6UbJhqhu6jU0OqEzmr8RNa5KuYfzkyno8ZQzoN191QuASpzFwrd6TcjQ2tzh51rbLhDvd5fHILSRop3jOrIUDXdeJC9sab66xIDnS8bfzny_SV8\" alt=\"M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Bitcoin\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Stock-to-Flow_va_gia_tri\"><\/span>Stock-to-Flow v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o b\u1eb1ng SF, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o b\u1ea3ng tr\u00ean x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng cao h\u01a1n khi SF cao h\u01a1n. B\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 l\u1eadp m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Du_lieu\"><\/span>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n SF h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a bitcoin t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2009 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2019 (t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 111 data point). S\u1ed1 kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy v\u1ea5n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb chu\u1ed7i kh\u1ed1i bitcoin b\u1eb1ng Python \/ RPC \/ bitcoind. S\u1ed1 kh\u1ed1i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat so v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, b\u1edfi v\u00ec c\u00e1c kh\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee9 sau 10 ph\u00fat (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean 2009, s\u1ed1 kh\u1ed1i \u00edt h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3). V\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng. T\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa s\u1ed1 coin b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ef1 \u00fd b\u1ecf qua m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u coin \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean (7 th\u00e1ng) trong t\u00ednh to\u00e1n SF. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n c\u00e1c coin b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 cho c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 bitcoin c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2010. T\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 th\u00eam gi\u00e1 bitcoin \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn (1 \u0111\u00f4 la cho 1309 BTC v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2009, b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 $0,003 tr\u00ean BitcoinMarket th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2010, 2 chi\u1ebfc b\u00e1nh pizza tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 $41 cho 10.000 BTC v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2010). Kh\u1ea3o c\u1ed5 h\u1ecdc d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 cho nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1c data point cho v\u00e0ng (SF 62, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 8,5 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la) v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c (22 SF, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 308 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la), m\u00e0 t\u00f4i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec3m chu\u1ea9n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mo_hinh\"><\/span>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a SF so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n n\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ho\u1eb7c tr\u1ee5c logarit cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, b\u1edfi v\u00ec n\u00f3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 8 b\u1eadc l\u1edbn (t\u1eeb $10.000 \u0111\u1ebfn $100 t\u1ef7). Vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ho\u1eb7c tr\u1ee5c logarit cho SF c\u0169ng cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p gi\u1eefa ln (SF) v\u00e0 ln (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng). L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng t\u00f4i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng logarit t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (ln v\u1edbi c\u01a1 s\u1ed1 e) ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i logarit ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn (log v\u1edbi c\u01a1 s\u1ed1 10), \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd cho k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/FSSpnEhcjlwpkK7m0k5mbAzqTHnobtDrnEMBGIvgIBWdsYuN7BOC0bNPn1OW_l-TSM7P7n0QUlFfkFAFSyZ6ChJ1AXh0NueQLlPBbyX8e6DgB94eMOpYjlgLiN2sTcYTqtFOlPmi\" alt=\"Stock-to-Flow\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi h\u1ed3i quy tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng g\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y b\u1eb1ng m\u1eaft th\u01b0\u1eddng: m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea gi\u1eefa SF v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (95% R2, \u00fd ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a F 2.3E-17, p-Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c 2.3E-17). Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa SF v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng do ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean g\u00e2y ra l\u00e0 g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1, quy \u0111\u1ecbnh, hack v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tin t\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao R2 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 100%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y chi ph\u1ed1i d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm \/ SF.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0110i\u1ec1u r\u1ea5t th\u00fa v\u1ecb l\u00e0 2 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau \u1edf v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bitcoin cho SF. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o th\u00eam s\u1ef1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2017, bitcoin SF l\u00e0 22 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bitcoin l\u00e0 230 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la, r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi b\u1ea1c.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u1edfi v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn SF, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng cho \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda ti\u1ebfp theo nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t l\u1edbp ph\u1ee7 m\u00e0u trong bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3. M\u00e0u xanh \u0111\u1eadm l\u00e0 th\u00e1ng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda v\u00e0 m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf l\u00e0 th\u00e1ng sau khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda. Gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2020. SF hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 25 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i l\u00ean 50, r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng (SF 62).<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho bitcoin sau khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2020 l\u00e0 1 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 bitcoin l\u00e0 $55.000. T\u00f4i \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian s\u1ebd tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi v\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd bi\u1ebft m\u1ed9t ho\u1eb7c hai n\u0103m sau khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020 ho\u1eb7c 2021. \u0110\u00e2y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi v\u1ec1 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u1ecfi t\u00f4i r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 1 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la bitcoin s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2u? C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i: b\u1ea1c, v\u00e0ng, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t x\u1ea5u (s\u1eafp t\u1edbi l\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, Hoa K\u1ef3), c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 s\u0103n \u0111u\u1ed5i (Venezuela, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Iran, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3, v.v.), c\u00e1c t\u1ef7 ph\u00fa v\u00e0 tri\u1ec7u ph\u00fa ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t trong 10 n\u0103m qua.<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1eadp m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 bitcoin tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi SF. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c nhau, nh\u01b0ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 gi\u1ed1ng nhau, 95% R2 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 bitcoin d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00e0 $55.000 v\u1edbi SF 50 sau khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2020.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00f4i v\u1ebd bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 gi\u00e1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bitcoin d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean SF (m\u00e0u \u0111en) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 bitcoin th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf theo th\u1eddi gian, v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 kh\u1ed1i l\u00e0 l\u1edbp ph\u1ee7 m\u00e0u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/gqnihu6K0w4S20a8oxhKjYW8w8HlgOaJ8cX6gIyuD976hrcjrqQ2R4VrdoSTj7xLyBTiFxMqb_ZO19XXWdXhvAh4IG7GCaL6Da5mDoIuZIAoE59HP0lAKQnAEzfe3AXUvEJNXUsM\" alt=\"Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Bitcoin\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c sau khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2012. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh sau khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m 2016 ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 do s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a Ethereum v\u00e0 v\u1ee5 hack DAO. Ngo\u00e0i ra, b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y \u00edt kh\u1ed1i h\u01a1n m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng (m\u00e0u xanh lam) trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean 2009 v\u00e0 trong th\u1eddi gian \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2011, gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2015 v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2018. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 khai th\u00e1c GPU v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2010-2011 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 khai th\u00e1c ASIC v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2013 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ed1i h\u01a1n m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng (m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Luat_Quyen_luc_va_Fractal\"><\/span>Lu\u1eadt Quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 Fractal<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>H\u00e0m h\u1ed3i quy tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh: ln (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng) = 3,3 * ln (SF) +14,6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>.. c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ebft d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng h\u00e0m lu\u1eadt l\u0169y th\u1eeba: gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng = exp (14,6) * SF ^ 3,3<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n lu\u1eadt quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u1edbi 95% R2 tr\u00ean 8 b\u1eadc c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9, th\u00eam ni\u1ec1m tin r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb bitcoin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi SF.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quy lu\u1eadt l\u0169y th\u1eeba l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 trong \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0m ph\u00e1t sinh s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kia, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00f3. M\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda, bitcoin SF t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 10 l\u1ea7n, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh lu\u1eadt quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c r\u1ea5t th\u00fa v\u1ecb b\u1edfi v\u00ec ch\u00fang ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean trong c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf c\u00e1c quy m\u00f4 kh\u00e1c nhau l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1edbi c\u00e1c quy m\u00f4 m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang xem x\u00e9t. T\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t n\u00e0y l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 lu\u1eadt quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u0169ng th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y trong Bitcoin: c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 tai n\u1ea1n n\u0103m 2011, 2014 v\u00e0 2018 tr\u00f4ng r\u1ea5t gi\u1ed1ng nhau (t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m -80%) nh\u01b0ng \u1edf c\u00e1c quy m\u00f4 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau (t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng l\u00e0 $10, $1000, $10.000); n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng theo d\u00f5i s\u00e1t sao, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y n\u00f3. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, tham s\u1ed1 3.3 trong h\u00e0m lu\u1eadt l\u0169y th\u1eeba \u1edf tr\u00ean l\u00e0 &#8216;chi\u1ec1u Fractal&#8217;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Ket_luan\"><\/span>K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin l\u00e0 v\u1eadt th\u1ec3 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 khan hi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean m\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y, n\u00f3 khan hi\u1ebfm nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eedi qua internet, radio, v\u1ec7 tinh, v.v.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Nh\u01b0ng bao nhi\u00eau? Trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y, t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng theo d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a bitcoin.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea gi\u1eefa l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng do ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean g\u00e2y ra l\u00e0 g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Th\u00eam ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>V\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c, hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bitcoin cho SF.<\/li><li>C\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 lu\u1eadt quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bitcoin l\u00e0 1 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la sau khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda ti\u1ebfp theo v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2020, quy ra gi\u00e1 <a href=\"https:\/\/fiahub.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">bitcoin <\/a>l\u00e0 55.000 \u0111\u00f4 la.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> C\u00e1m \u01a1n b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 gh\u00e9 Fiahub Blog, ch\u00fac b\u1ea1n m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c vui v\u1ebb.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u Satoshi Nakamoto \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n s\u00e1ch tr\u1eafng v\u1ec1 bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 31 th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2008, t\u1ea1o ra kh\u1ed1i bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2009 v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh m\u00e3 bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 8 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2009. Ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bitcoin (BTC) tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":4812,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21849,1],"tags":[221,9860,9858,153,156,9861,9859],"class_list":{"0":"post-4811","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-phan-tich-nhan-dinh","8":"category-uncategorized","9":"tag-bitcoin","10":"tag-fractal","11":"tag-mo-hinh-hoa-gia-tri-bitcoin","12":"tag-mua-bitcoin","13":"tag-mua-btc","14":"tag-so-luong-block-bitcoin","15":"tag-stock-to-flow"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Bitcoin - 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