{"id":17028,"date":"2022-06-20T07:00:32","date_gmt":"2022-06-20T00:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/?p=17028"},"modified":"2022-06-19T19:10:13","modified_gmt":"2022-06-19T12:10:13","slug":"phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u on-chain tu\u1ea7n #25: Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e1y ho\u1eb7c g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1y"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">D\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 13\/6 &#8211; 19\/6.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Xem th\u00eam<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-24-2022\/\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u on-chain tu\u1ea7n #24: S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y BTC s\u1ebd s\u1edbm xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_83 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\"><p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">N\u1ed9i dung b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft<\/p>\n<\/div><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022\/#BTC_va_MA_200_ngay\" >BTC v\u00e0 MA 200 ng\u00e0y<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022\/#Capitulation_va_day\" >Capitulation v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022\/#MVRV_Z-Score\" >MVRV Z-Score<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022\/#Reserve_Risk\" >Reserve Risk<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022\/#Puell_Multiple\" >Puell Multiple<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/phan-tich-du-lieu-on-chain-tuan-25-2022\/#Loi_ket\" >L\u1eddi k\u1ebft<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"BTC_va_MA_200_ngay\"><\/span><b>BTC v\u00e0 MA 200 ng\u00e0y<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, gi\u00e1 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/bitcoin-la-gi-tong-quan-ve-dong-tien-dien-tu-dau-tien\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/vn\/mua-bitcoin\/\">BTC<\/a>) (m\u00e0u \u0111en) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ebd c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 200 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (MA, m\u00e0u xanh lam). N\u00f3i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e0 t\u0103ng n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng MA n\u00e0y.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Trong khi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 giao d\u1ecbch d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng MA n\u00e0y.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sau \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o dao \u0111\u1ed9ng 0.8 (xanh l\u1ee5c) v\u00e0 2.4 (t\u00edm) c\u1ee7a MA n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Trong su\u1ed1t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a BTC, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o dao \u0111\u1ed9ng 2.4 r\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ba \u0111\u1ec9nh (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111en) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh khi gi\u00e1 di chuy\u1ec3n tr\u00ean b\u1ed9 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, trong khi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u1ecf) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o d\u01b0\u1edbi b\u1ed9 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng 0.8, th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1y v\u00ec ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh ph\u00e9p \u0111o t\u1eeb l\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y h\u01a1n, gi\u00e1 BTC \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi MA n\u00e0y v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7\/2021 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 1\/2022. Sau m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng ng\u1eafn, n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 6 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang giao d\u1ecbch d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c n\u00e0y.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17029\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17029\" style=\"width: 1488px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17029\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin Mayer Multiple\" width=\"1488\" height=\"819\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple.png 1488w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1024x564.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-150x83.png 150w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-768x423.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-450x248.png 450w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-01-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1200x660.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17029\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin Mayer Multiple<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Capitulation_va_day\"><\/span><b>Capitulation v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Mayer Multiple (MM) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch l\u1ea5y t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 BTC v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 200 ng\u00e0y (MA) c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. Sau \u0111\u00f3, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o Mayer Multiple (m\u00e0u xanh lam) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch l\u1ea5y ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 BTC v\u00e0 MA 200 ng\u00e0y. B\u1ed9 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng 0.8 (xanh l\u1ee5c) v\u00e0 2.4 (t\u00edm) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u00f4, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 khi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00e1y.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Fiahub \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 12\/2018 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n tr\u00ean v\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1edbi b\u1ed9 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng 0.8 MM.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">B\u00e2y gi\u1edd, MM \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb 0.55 (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf). M\u1ee9c n\u00e0y th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00e1ng 3\/2020 (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n m\u00e0u \u0111en) v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong th\u00e1ng 12\/2018 (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n m\u00e0u xanh lam). V\u00ec v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu l\u1ecbch s\u1eed tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i, <\/span><b>BTC s\u1ebd s\u1edbm ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ebfn ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17030\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17030\" style=\"width: 1477px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17030\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin Mayer Multiple\" width=\"1477\" height=\"820\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1.png 1477w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1-150x83.png 150w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1-450x250.png 450w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-02-builink-bitcoin-mayer-multiple-1-1200x666.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1477px) 100vw, 1477px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17030\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin Mayer Multiple<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"MVRV_Z-Score\"><\/span><b>MVRV Z-Score<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o on-chain MVRV \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao h\u01a1n 1 cho th\u1ea5y v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. \u0110i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 Z c\u1ee7a MVRV sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n \u0111\u1ec3 chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u1eeb 7 \u0111\u1ebfn 9 tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, s\u1ebd c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi 0 v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1y. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10\/2021 v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n sang ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 13\/6\/2022. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh th\u00e1ng 3\/2020 (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n m\u00e0u \u0111en), nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua v\u00f9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t x\u1ea3 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng kh\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2012, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hai th\u00e1ng sau khi ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean chuy\u1ec3n sang v\u00f9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2015, n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u01b0\u1eddi hai ng\u00e0y sau khi ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean chuy\u1ec3n sang v\u00f9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2018, n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng sau khi ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean chuy\u1ec3n sang v\u00f9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">V\u00ec v\u1eady, theo ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y, <\/span><b>s\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng kh\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17031\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17031\" style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17031\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1.png\" alt=\"Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 MVRV Z-Score\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1.png 1800w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1-150x84.png 150w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1-450x253.png 450w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-03-builink-bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-1-1200x675.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17031\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 MVRV Z-Score<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Reserve_Risk\"><\/span><b>Reserve Risk<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Reserve Risk l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o on-chain BTC theo chu k\u1ef3, \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00f2ng tin c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. Khi l\u00f2ng tin cao nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, Reserve Risk cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ea5p. Nh\u1eefng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">C\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.002 (m\u00e0u xanh l\u00e1 c\u00e2y) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 r\u1ee7i ro thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1eb7t h\u00e1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch sau \u0111\u00f3.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean 0.02 (m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i\u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1eb7t h\u00e1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch sau \u0111\u00f3.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Trong su\u1ed1t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a BTC, m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn trong khi Reserve Risk \u0111\u1ea1t tr\u00ean 0.02. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, m\u1ecdi \u0111\u00e1y \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea1t d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.002.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Reserve Risk v\u01b0\u1ee3t xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.002 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 20\/1\/2022 v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p 0.001 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 16\/6.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">M\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2015. Do \u0111\u00f3, n\u00f3 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1y c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 12\/2018 (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n m\u00e0u \u0111en).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">V\u00ec v\u1eady, theo ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y, <\/span><b>c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 BTC \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e1y<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17032\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17032\" style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17032\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk.png\" alt=\"Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Bitcoin Reserve Risk\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk.png 1800w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk-150x84.png 150w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk-450x253.png 450w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-04-builink-bitcoin-reserve-risk-1200x675.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17032\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Bitcoin Reserve Risk<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Puell_Multiple\"><\/span><b>Puell Multiple<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Puell Multiple l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o on-chain \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch chia gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra cho m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">C\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u1eeb 4 \u0111\u1ebfn 10 (m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf) th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u1eeb 0 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.5 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c 0.6. V\u00ec v\u1eady, n\u00f3 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1y (t\u1eeb 0 &#8211; 0.5 nh\u01b0 Fiahub \u0111\u00e3 chia s\u1ebb \u1edf tr\u00ean). C\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1y n\u0103m 2015 v\u00e0 2019 (v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111en) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng 0.35. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 MVRV, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y <\/span><b>c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng kh\u00e1c<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17033\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17033\" style=\"width: 1800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17033\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average.png\" alt=\"Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Puell Multiple\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average.png 1800w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average-150x84.png 150w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average-450x253.png 450w, https:\/\/www.fiahub.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/06-20-05-builink-bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-moving-average-1200x675.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17033\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Puell Multiple<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Loi_ket\"><\/span><b>L\u1eddi k\u1ebft<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o on-chain Bitcoin \u0111\u1ec1u cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 Bitcoin \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e1y ho\u1eb7c s\u1eafp s\u1eeda h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e1y. Tuy nhi\u00ean, d\u1ef1a theo nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 Bitcoin, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 c\u0169ng tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean gi\u00e1 Bitcoin di chuy\u1ec3n xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec9nh trong chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m. C\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn Celsius hay Three Arrows Capital v\u1eabn \u0111ang \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u00f3i chung v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed n\u00f3i ri\u00eang. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, h\u00e3y h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u1ed1i \u0111a r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ebfn.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 13\/6 &#8211; 19\/6. Xem th\u00eam: Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u on-chain tu\u1ea7n #24: S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y BTC s\u1ebd s\u1edbm xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n BTC v\u00e0 MA 200 ng\u00e0y \u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, gi\u00e1 Bitcoin (BTC) (m\u00e0u \u0111en) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ebd<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":17034,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21849],"tags":[221,8097],"class_list":{"0":"post-17028","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-phan-tich-nhan-dinh","8":"tag-bitcoin","9":"tag-on-chain"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u on-chain tu\u1ea7n #25: Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e1y ho\u1eb7c g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1y - 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